Could Costco Be a Millionaire-Maker Stock? | The Motley Fool (2024)

The company has outperformed many of its rivals in stock and revenue growth over the past five years.

Shares in Costco (COST -1.64%) have risen 229% over the past five years, delivering the kind of growth usually reserved for tech stocks. The company ranks fifth among the world's largest retailers, with some of its biggest rivals including Walmart and Amazon.

Yet Costco appears to have plenty of room left to run. The retail giant's share price has skyrocketed more than 92,000% since it went public in 1985, likely creating more than a few millionaires. However, the company is only just getting started on its expansion abroad and has tapped into a lucrative subscription-based model.

As a result, it's not too late to make a long-term investment in this retailer and profit from its future. So here's why Costco remains a millionaire-maker stock worth considering right now.

The power of a subscription-based model

Retail can be a tricky industry, with many companies having to contend with lower profit margins than other sectors. However, Costco has found a way around that, with its business more reliant on memberships than product sales.

In a similar strategy to Amazon's Prime subscription, which has likewise seen exponential success, entry into a Costco location requires shoppers to pay for an annual membership. While requiring consumers to pay to go inside a grocery store could've gone very wrong for the company, the opposite has occurred.

Costco has attracted millions of consumers over the years, charming them with access to quality products at wholesale pricing, all for a low annual fee. The company's commitment to this model has seen it amass nearly 75 million paid memberships, a figure that rose 8% year over year in its latest quarter, the first quarter of its fiscal 2024. Meanwhile, Costco boasts a 90% renewal rate worldwide.

Could Costco Be a Millionaire-Maker Stock? | The Motley Fool (1)

Data by YCharts

Costco's success over the years has seen its financials skyrocket, with this chart showing how the company's annual revenue, operating income, and free cash flow have grown since 2019.

Costco's fiscal 2023 earnings best represent the company's winning membership model and its positive effect on profits. The retail company achieved over $6 billion in profits during the year, with membership fees making up 73% of that.

Costco's stock is worth its premium price tag

Costco almost always trades at a premium, represented by its high forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 53. The figure is higher than many of its rivals, with the same metric for Walmart and Target at 28 and 15. Even Amazon's is lower at 40.

Could Costco Be a Millionaire-Maker Stock? | The Motley Fool (2)

COST data by YCharts

However, I'd argue that Costco is worth its price tag for investors willing to hold for the long term. The data above shows that Costco has outperformed all these companies in stock growth over the past five years. Besides, Amazon has beaten its fellow retailers in annual revenue and operating income growth.

Moreover, Costco is only just getting started with its expansion abroad, which will probably continue to boost earnings for years. The company operates 876 locations across 14 nations. However, Costco has six or fewer stores in six of those countries, representing massive growth potential. And that's before considering the many regions the company has yet to enter.

For instance, Costco opened its first location in China in 2019 and the second in 2023 after being held up by the COVID-19 pandemic. Yet, the company already has six stores in the East Asian country and has barely scratched its surface.

It's a similar situation in France.There are only two Costco warehouses in France, with one opening last year, and both located near Paris. However, significant expansion potential remains in the European nation and many other countries.

In Q3 2023, international revenue rose 9% year over year, outperforming domestic revenue growth by about 2%. The segment will likely continue outperforming domestic sales over the long-term as Costco remains on its current growth trajectory.

In addition to a solid growth history and a winning business model, Costco is a stock that could make you a millionaire if you're willing to wait.

John Mackey, former CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. Dani Cook has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon, Costco Wholesale, Target, Walmart, and Walt Disney. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Could Costco Be a Millionaire-Maker Stock? | The Motley Fool (2024)

FAQs

Could Costco Be a Millionaire-Maker Stock? | The Motley Fool? ›

In addition to a solid growth history and a winning business model, Costco is a stock that could make you a millionaire if you're willing to wait. John Mackey, former CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors.

How much will Costco stock be worth in 10 years? ›

Costco stock price stood at $848.31

According to the latest long-term forecast, Costco price will hit $1100 by the end of 2025 and then $1200 by the end of 2026. Costco will rise to $1300 within the year of 2027, $1500 in 2028, $1700 in 2029, $1800 in 2030 and $2000 in 2033.

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That's over 5x the market's performance. Some of their most successful picks have included stocks like Netflix (gains of over 9,000%), Amazon (over 3,000% return) and Apple (over 1,000% return). Even picks with more modest gains have cumulatively crushed index returns over time.

What is the future prediction for Costco stock? ›

Average Price Target

Based on 25 Wall Street analysts offering 12 month price targets for Costco in the last 3 months. The average price target is $854.30 with a high forecast of $960.00 and a low forecast of $676.00. The average price target represents a -1.89% change from the last price of $870.75.

What is the future forecast for Costco stock in 2030? ›

Costco stock forecast for 2025: $ 1,014.78 (18.59%) Costco stock prediction for 2030: $ 2,380.63 (178.22%)

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What is Kirkland stock forecast for 2025? ›

Kirklands Stock Prediction 2025

The Kirklands stock prediction for 2025 is currently $ 3.48, assuming that Kirklands shares will continue growing at the average yearly rate as they did in the last 10 years. This would represent a 93.44% increase in the KIRK stock price.

How much do shares go up in 10 years? ›

5-year, 10-year, 20-year and 30-year S&P 500 returns
Period (start-of-year to end-of-2023)Average annual S&P 500 return
10 years (2014-2023)11.02%
15 years (2009-2023)12.63%
20 years (2004-2023)9.00%
25 years (1999-2023)7.18%
2 more rows
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9 Best Growth Stocks for the Next 10 Years
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  • Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST)
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May 17, 2024

Is Costco over or undervalued? ›

The intrinsic value of one COST stock under the Base Case scenario is 428.92 USD. Compared to the current market price of 848.31 USD, Costco Wholesale Corp is Overvalued by 49%.

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